January 1, 2010, 8:44 AM ET
Goldman Sachs: 10 Questions for 2010
By David Wessel
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, in a year end note to clients, predicts sluggish economic growth in 2010 — too slow to keep unemployment from rising further — and says the Fed will keep its key interest-rate target near zero for the whole year.
Here are 10 questions he says are looming over the economy, and his bottom line on each.
1. Have house prices bottomed?
Probably not yet, but we are quite uncertain.
2. Will banks become more willing to lend?
Probably yes.
3. Will small-business activity pick up?
It should, but so far we are not seeing it.
4. Will hiring revive?
Yes, but we expect the rate of job creation to reach only about 100,000 per month by the second quarter, not enough to push the unemployment rate down in a meaningful way.
5. Does the savings rate have further to rise?
Yes, we think so.
6. Will inflation fall further?
Very likely yes.
7. Does the dollar pose an inflation risk?
Only to a very limited degree.
8. Will Congress pass more fiscal stimulus?
Yes.
9. How will the Fed “sequence the exit”?
In 2010, the main form of “exit” is likely to be an end to asset purchases. … We expect neither a hike in the funds rate nor outright sales of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet in 2010 (or for that matter in 2011).
10. Will the end to the [Fed's] asset purchases tighten financial conditions?
Possibly, although the degree is highly uncertain.
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